1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY FOR THIS SERIES
HIGH YIELD STOCKS ARE A FORM OF CASH. THUS INFLATION EATS AWAY AT BOTH YIELD AND PRINCIPLE. AS GOVERNMENTS INFLATE THEIR MONEY SUPPLY TO EASE CREDIT, MOST OBSERVERS BELIEVE INFLATION IS INEVITABLE.
THUS FAR IN THIS SERIES WE EXPLORED:
THE CURRENT STATE OF THE MARKET
THE CASE FOR AND AGAINST THE DOLLAR’S DEMISE
RECOMMENDED CRITERIA FOR SELECTING HIGH DIVIDEND STOCKS THAT ALSO GIVE A HEDGE AGAINST THE U.S. DOLLAR’S LIKELY IMPENDING DEPRECIATION.
SPECIFIC STOCK MARKET HEDGES AND HIGH DIVIDEND STOCKS THAT ARE INFLATION RESISTANT MENTIONED BELOW INCLUDE:
UltraShort S & P 500 Proshares (SDS), UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF), UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID), UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS), UltraShort Russell2000 ProShares (TWM)
BP, plc (BP), CNOOC Ltd. (CEO), Enid SpA (E), Total Fina Elf (TOT)
Veolia Environmental SA (VE), ENEL-SOCIETA PER AZI (ESOCF.PK or ENLAY.PK)
Cellcom Israel Ltd. (CEL), France Telecom (FTE) Telefonica (TEF)
Diana Shipping (DSX), Nordic American Tanker (NAT), Paragon Shipping (PRGN), Seaspan Corp (SSW)
Canadian Oil/Gas Energy Income Trusts
Advantage Energy Income Fund (AAV, TSX: AVN.UN), ARC Energy Trust (OTC: AETUF, TSX: AET-UN), Claymore/SWM Canadian Energy Income Fund (ENY), Enerplus Resources Fund (ERF), Peyto Energy Trust (OTC: PEYUF, TSX: PEY.UN), Provident Energy Trust (PVX, TSX: PVE.UN), Vermillion Energy Trust (OTC: VETMF, TSX: VET.UN)
Canadian Income Trust Tax Issues
HERE IN PART 9A WE LOOK AT THE RECENT UPTREND IN THE STOCK MARKETS AND THE U.S. DOLLAR VS THE CANADIAN DOLLAR, AND WHY THEY’RE UNLIKELY TO MARK THE BEGINNING OF LONG TERM TRENDS
IN PART 9B, WE’LL EXAMINE:
Canadian Clean Energy Income Trusts
Atlantic Power Corporation (OTC: ATPWF, TSX: ATP.UN), Energy Savings Income Fund (OTC: ESIUF, TSX: SIF.UN), Great Lakes Hydro Income Fund (OTC: GLHIF, TSX: GLH.UN), Innergex Power Income Fund (OTC: INRGF, TSX: IEF.UN), Macquarie Power & Infrastructure (OTC: MCQPF, TSX: MPT.UN), Northland Power Income Fund (OTC: NPIFF, TSX: NPI-U)
IN COMING PARTS WE’LL EXPLORE:
Canadian Energy Infrastructure Income Funds
Altagas Income Trust (OTC: ATGFF, TSX: ALA.UN), Pembina Pipeline Fund (OTC: PMBIF, TSX: PIF.UN)
Canadian Utility Income Trusts
Bell Aliant (OTC: BLIAF, TSX: BA.UN)
Canadian Health Care Income Trust
CML Healthcare Inc. Fund (OTC: CMHIF, TSX: CLC.UN)
Canadian Real Estate Income Trusts
Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (OTC: CDPYF, TSX: CAR.UN), Northern Property REIT (OTC: NPRUF, TSX: NPR.UN), RIOCAN REIT: (OTC: RIOCF, TSX: REI.UN
Canadian Misc Business Trusts
Yellow Pages Income Fund (OTC: YLWPF, TSX: YLO.UN)
AT &T Inc (T), Verizon (VZ), Otelco (OTT), Windstream Corp (WIN)
Energy Infrastructure Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs)
Buckeye Partners (BPL), El Paso Pipeline Partners (EPB), Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), Energy Transfer Partners (ETP), Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP), Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP), Nustar Energy (NS), ONEOK Partners (OKS), Sunoco Logistics Partners (SXL), TEPPCO Partners (TPP), Tortoise Energy Infrastructure Partners (TYG)
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP), Northern Resource Partners (NRP), Penn Virginia Resources Partners (PVR)
Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. (TNH), StoneMor Partners (STON)
Dominion Resources Inc. (D), Duke Energy Corp (DUK), Progress Energy (PGN), Southern Company (SO)
2. THE MARKET AND THE U.S. DOLLAR: THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL, OR AN ONCOMING TRAIN?
Despite the recent rally, evidence points to a bear market rally rather than a bottom. Proceed as noted earlier. A great time to consider some of the recommended ultrashort hedges SKF and SDS if you haven’t already.
For those feeling buoyant, I hate to spoil the mood, but all readers should carefully read the following articles, which I briefly summarize.
Exclusive: Bank Banks' Recent Profitability Due to AIG Scam? The question isn’t whether the recent good news on the banks is fraudulent. It’s only if, and for how long, the charade can last. SKFs (Ultrashorts of the financials), anyone? Written by my esteemed fellow SA contributor, who writes under the wonderfully ironic nom de plume, Tyler Durden.
A View of the U.S. Consumer Balance Sheet What could happen if post 2009 earnings don’t meet the more optimistic expectations. Again, kudos to Tyler Durden, whoever you really are.
Financial Rescue Nears GDP as Pledges Top $12.8 Trillion With no clear end in sight, the U.S. government has committed to spending an entire year’s GDP on various financial rescue programs. First brought to my attention by Seeking Alpha editor Rachel Granby in her always worthwhile Wall Street Breakfast column on Seeking Alpha.com
Arguably, the current slowdown makes deflationary pressures the bigger near term problem. However with an unprecedented growth in the supply of greenbacks, a similarly unprecedented inflation seems to be merely a matter of time. Compared to this, the expansion of the Canadian dollar seems downright stingy.
In sum, high dividend investors should beware the current rally. Specifically:
· Take partial positions in some kind of hedge, the recommended (see Part 7A ultrashorts or otherwise.
· Take partial positions in our recommended quality high dividend stocks that give you a USD hedge, but only with cash not needed for the next 18 months. Of course, it’s possible that Obama & Co. will manage to create enough good vibes, catch some positive earnings surprises (possible given the low expectations) and the rally could last a while. Thus you profit from the what the market gives you, and consider sell stops to protect some of your profits.
Because all financial markets are related and influence each, it’s critical to have a solid background in as many of them as possible, or to take advice from someone who does. Often what is happening in one kind of market can provide insight into dangers or opportunities in another.
As a forex (foreign exchange, aka currency) trader as well as income investor, below I offer an important insight from the world of foreign exchange markets
3. GO LOONIE: A FOREX TRADER’S “MUST KNOW” ADVICE FOR HIGH DIVIDEND INVESTORS’ USD HEDGE
Given the historic monetary and fiscal moves of the Fed and central bankers everywhere, your local high dividend stock advisor should be familiar with foreign exchange markets and what moves them. Fortunately, good reader, you’re in luck.
If the worst of the declines in economic growth, energy and other commodities prices is over, then the Canadian dollar (aka the Loonie) should appreciate against the USD and other currencies.
As noted above, the U.S. has committed to close to $13 trillion of “quantitative easing” (aka printing new dollars), a sum equal to the value of everything the U.S. currently produces in a given year. Add to this, the additional $1 trillion the G-20 has pledged to the IMF for needy nations. Perhaps a bit of that $13 trillion is already part of that IMF spending, perhaps not.
What another trillion here or there?
If this policy does in fact improve world’s economy and hiring and consumption pick up, there will be a lot of paper money that people want to spend on all kinds of stuff, virtually all of which will be for things that ultimately require energy and/or basic commodities.
Moreover, as any economics 101 student knows, the multiplier effect causes one dollar injected into the economy to feel more like $5, so that $13 trillion could feel more like $60 trillion plus. Maybe more, maybe less. With so much new paper fiat money floating around, we’re in new territory.
History shows that massive growth in money supply at some point leads to inflation. It’s just a matter of how much and when. A long, severe recession can keep the lid on inflation, but at some point things turn around, hiring and spending increase, and lots of currency chases a diminished supply of goods, causing inflation
Higher inflation means higher prices for hard assets like energy and other commodities. Indeed, these are among the first to rise, because they’re needed to produce and deliver finished goods.
The Loonie is a commodity based currency, so stronger commodity prices mean a stronger Loonie.
Adding to the CAD’s strength relative to the USD and other currencies is the relative health of the Canadian financial system, in which credit is available and there is no major money printing or spending for bailouts and credit easing. Well, nothing on the scale of what’s being done south of the border.
While no one knows when the CAD will recover against the USD, note how the recent uptrend/appreciation of the of the USD vs. the CAD, as defined by the series of higher lows, has begun to break down over the past three weeks, beginning the week of 3/15. Do the past three weeks signal a new trend. It’s unclear, but worth watching. Unlike many traders who focus on very short term movements, I like to step back and look at longer term charts in order to at least attempt to divine longer term trends. After all, we income investors tend to have long holding periods
Figure 1: USD/CAD Weekly chart courtesy of AVAForex
4. Conclusion, Disclosure & More Info
Here in Part 9A, we tried to put the current rally in both the stock market and the USD/CAD trend of the past months into perspective, and warn that we believe that neither is a long term trend.
Part 9B will deal with Canadian Clean Energy Income Trusts and why we believe they are among the very best combination of safety, high yield, and USD hedge. Good for your pocket, and conscience.
Disclosure: I have positions in most of the above mentioned investments.
Interested in learning more about investing in stocks that provide reliable high dividends with better transparency, appreciation potential, and liquidity than bonds? Visit http://highdividendstocksguide.blogspot.com